Long Beach, California

The Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, and Hermosa Beach (Beach Cities)  California real estate home price trends are shown below in the chart.  The data show price changes relative to January 2008.    The past couple months have been relatively flat.  Will that trend persist?  Only time will tell.

Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, Hermosa Beach Real Estate Home Price Trends

For more charts relating to the real estate trends in Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, and Hermosa Beach California, click on the image or use the link below:

http://www.philipmccollum.com/marketdata.htm

Long Beach, California

The Palos Verdes California real estate home price trends are shown below in the chart .  The data show price changes relative to January 2008.    The past couple months show a strong downtrend.  Will it persist?  Only time will tell.

Palos Verdes California Real Estate Home Price Trends

For more charts relating to the real estate trends in Palos Verdes California, click on the image or use the link below:

http://www.philipmccollum.com/marketdata.htm

Long Beach, California

The Carson California real estate home price trends are represented in today’s post.  The data show price changes relative to January 2008.

Carson Real Estate Home Prices Percent Change

For more charts relating to the real estate trends in Carson California, click on the image or use the link below:

http://www.philipmccollum.com/marketdata.htm

Leslie Appleton-Young, vice president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) has come out with her prediction for 2010.

Actually, this is an updated forecast.  She made her original forecast in October 2009.

U.S. Economy Statistics

As part of her analysis, a chart of the condition of the US Economy shows hope for 2.7% growth although unemployment is forecast to reach 10.0%.  Coming off a -2.4% growth in 2009, that’s quite a turn-around.

California economy statistics

Next, a chart of the California economy is presented.  California is going through rough times.  The state is broke and can’t raise taxes for fear of making the situation worse.

Unemployment of 12.1% is forecast and that makes any recovery much more difficult.

The chart shows a forecast for negative growth of -1.1% but that looks rather favorable coming on the heals of -6% growth in 2009.

California Housing Market Outlook

Finally, we come to the California Housing Market Outlook.  I’m surprised by a couple of the predictions made by Leslie Appleton-Young.

She is forecasting home sales of 527,500 units, down from 2009 but much higher than 2008.  I’m not sure who is in the home buying mood these days.  In my own area, sales volume has been low.

Perhaps the most startling prediction is for 9.1% price growth in 2010.  I know prices have been pummeled over the past couple years, as indicated on the chart by price changes of -38.2% in 2008 and another -20.6% decline in 2009, but what will make prices rise in 2010?

Interest rates are definitely low, and that helps.  But sales have already been aided by that and by home buyer credits, so when the credits go away it seems that homes will be harder to sell.

I guess the key thing to keep in mind is that Leslie Appleton-Young works for C.A.R. and I think it’s in the job description that you must be an extreme optimist.  The C.A.R. and National Association of Realtors (N.A.R.) predictions always seem to be optimistic.

So far this year in my area I’ve seen some gains in the upper-middle-class income housing, but declines in the lower income and high-end properties.  I think it will be tough to hit that 9.0% price gain.

Your thoughts are welcome.  Please make a comment.

For more interesting statistics, refer to my website: www.philipmccollum.com

California’s Median Price: First Year-to-Year Gain in Two Years

California Median Home Price of Existing Detached Homes

The median price of a home in California experienced its first year-to-year gain in over two years during the month of November, as the California housing market continued recent trends in terms of prices, supply, and sales. California’s housing market has also led the US housing market.

Median Price Has Seen an Improving Situation

California Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence

The monthly median price crossed the $300,000 threshold in November with a median of $304,520, up 2.4 percent from the October median price of $297,500 and up 5.8 percent from $287,880 a year earlier. The situation has improved greatly from a year ago during the worst of the financial crisis, when the median price had registered 41.3 percent year-to-year decline.

After a 59 percent peak-to-trough decline, the California median price has increased 24.1 percent from a trough of $245,170 that occurred in February 2009. The increase in price has been sustained by a combination of lean supply and high demand, the latter triggered by historically high affordability. By comparison, the NAR national median price for existing single family homes, which experienced a 29 percent peak-to-trough decline, has increased by 4.7 percent from its trough of $164,200 in January 2009.

Sales Also in Health Territory

Nine consecutive month-to-month increases in the California median price have been the result of the lean inventory conditions throughout the year. The MLS-based unsold inventory index for California has averaged 4.8 months since the start of the year, well below the 7 month long run average. By comparison, the national unsold inventory index for single family homes has averaged 8.4 months over the year. Inventory levels in both California and the US have trended down for most of the year.

As for sales, California returned to pre-peak levels of sales in late 2008 and sustained them throughout 2009. With sales of 536,720 homes in November, the market was 4.6 percent lower than the October sales figure of 562,400, but 4.7 percent above the November 2008 figure of 512,840. Sales throughout the year have averaged 545,600, compared with the pre-peak monthly average over the 2000-2002 period of 537,300 homes.

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